Published online 11 April 2006
Published in Agron J 98:545-553 (2006)
DOI: 10.2134/agronj2005.0153
© 2006 American Society of Agronomy
677 S. Segoe Rd., Madison, WI 53711 USA
Site-Specific Analysis and Management
Evaluating Management Zone Optimal Nitrogen Rates with a Crop Growth Model
Yuxin Miaoa,*,
David J. Mullaa,
William D. Batchelorb,
Joel O. Pazc,
Pierre C. Roberta and
Matt Wiebersd
a Dep. of Soil, Water, and Climate, Univ. of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
b Dep. of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS 39762
c Dep. of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Univ. of Georgia, Griffin, GA 30223
d Mosaic Crop Nutrition, 616 S Jefferson Ave., Paris, IL 61944
* Corresponding author (ymiao{at}umn.edu)
Received for publication May 19, 2005.
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ABSTRACT
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Determining MZ (management zone)-specific optimal N rate is a challenge in precision crop management. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of applying a crop growth model to simulate corn (Zea mays L.) yield at various N levels in different MZs and estimate optimal N rates based on long-term weather conditions. Three years of corn yield data were used to calibrate a modified version of the CERES-Maize (Version 3.5) model for a commercial field previously divided into four MZs in eastern Illinois. The model performance in simulating corn yield for two hybrids (33G26 and 33J24) at five N levels in two independent years was evaluated. Economically optimum N rates (EONRs) were estimated based on 15 yr of simulation (19892003). The model explained approximately 59 and 93% of yield variability during calibration and validation, respectively. The model performed well at non-zero N rates, with most of the simulation errors being <10%. Model-estimated EONR varied from 70 to 250 kg ha1. Economic analyses indicated that applying N fertilizer at year-, hybrid-, and MZ-specific EONR had the potential to increase net return by an average of US$49 (33G26) or US$52 (33J24) ha1 over a URN (uniform rate N) application at 170 kg ha1. Applying average hybrid- and MZ-specific EONRs across years did not consistently improve economic returns over URN application; however, applying the hybrid- and MZ-specific N rates that maximized long-term net returns would improve economic return by an average of US$22 (33G26) and US$14 (33J24) ha1.
Abbreviations: EONR, economically optimum nitrogen rate MZ, management zone PCM, precision crop management URN, uniform rate N
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INTRODUCTION
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DIVIDING a field into a few relatively uniform MZs is a practical and cost-effective approach to site-specific crop management with current technology and price relationships. Many approaches to MZ delineation have been proposed and evaluated (Mulla, 1991; Fleming et al., 2000, 2004; Blackmore, 2000; Fraisse et al., 2001a; Khosla et al., 2002; Diker et al., 2004; Chang et al., 2004; Miao et al., 2005); however, the biggest challenge facing the producer is how to manage inputs to optimize profit and reduce environmental contamination. Management zones are generally proxies for crop response zones. For the defined zones to be useful and practical for site-specific management, each zone should show different crop responses to nutrient inputs, and these responses need to be reliably estimated before making management decisions. This challenge has not been addressed very well in the literature due to variability in climate and the complexity of statistical methods required.
With site-specific N management, several approaches can be taken to determine the optimal fertilization rates in different MZs. The first approach involves determining the rate of fertilizers by applying current N recommendations based on soil fertility, moisture, and crop yield potential at the MZ scale (Hornung et al., 2003; Koch et al., 2004; Inman et al., 2005); however, it has been pointed out that current N recommendations may not be suitable for site-specific N management (Pan et al., 1997; Hergert et al., 1997; Anselin et al., 2004), and information on spatial crop response variability was not sufficiently used in developing such recommendations (Hurley et al., 2001; Swinton et al., 2002; Bullock et al., 2002). Current university and industry N recommendations are broad compromises intended for large-scale regional use (Pan et al., 1997). In addition to the difficulties in accurately estimating spatial yield goals, site-specific N recommendations based on soil organic matter have proven to be too simplistic to reflect within-field variability of N availability (Schmidt et al., 2002).
An alternative approach is to use N-rate strips, including a zero-N treatment, traversing a field to quantify N responses across different soil and landscape conditions and determine appropriate precision N management strategies in different MZs (Pierce and Nowak, 1999; Mamo et al., 2003; Hurley et al., 2004). This approach is useful in evaluating site-specific N management zones and variable N rates, but may not be practical for estimating zone-specific optimal N rates, which are affected by weather, cultivar, management, site characteristics, and their dynamic interactions. Many years of data may be required to reliably estimate the zone-specific N rates to be applied across years, even when the cultivars and management practices remain the same.
A third, and promising, approach is to use crop growth models to estimate optimal N rates in different MZs within a field, based on long-term simulations using different historical weather conditions. Process-oriented crop growth models, such as CERES-Maize (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) and CROPGRO (Hoogenboom et al., 1994), can simulate the impacts of genetics, weather, soil, management practices, and their dynamic interactions on crop growth, development, and yield based on C, N and water balance principles (Batchelor et al., 2002). They have been extensively validated and applied under a wide range of environmental conditions (Singh, 1985; Carberry et al., 1989; Jagtap et al., 1993; Kiniry et al., 1997; Garrison et al., 1999; Gungula et al., 2003) and for different purposes (Andresen et al., 2001; Jagtap and Abamu, 2003; Pang et al., 1998). In recent years, crop growth models have also been evaluated and applied in precision crop management (PCM), and have shown promising results (Paz et al., 1998, 1999, 2001, 2003; Moore and Tyndale-Biscoe, 1999; Braga, 2000; Basso et al., 2001; Booltink et al., 2001; Fraisse et al., 2001b; Seidl et al., 2001).
Although designed for homogeneous areas, several strategies have been developed in applying crop models for spatial analysis and modeling. The first approach divides a field into grids, and each grid cell is simulated, as demonstrated by Paz et al. (1999). The second approach runs simulations at different points within a field, and then interpolates the simulation results into surface maps for the whole field (Booltink and Verhagen, 1998). The third approach divides the field into a few MZs, and then runs simulations for each relatively homogeneous zone. For example, Basso et al. (2001) classified a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index derived from an aerial image taken in the summer (18 July) into three zones and ran simulations for each zone. Van Alphen (2002) used the WAVE (Water and Agrochemicals in soil and Vadose Environment) model to optimize N management in different MZs for winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). This third approach can greatly reduce the cost of collecting spatial model parameters and simplifies the application of crop growth models in PCM.
The objectives of this study were to: (i) calibrate the CERES-Maize model for within-field MZs with 3 yr of historical spatial yield data, (ii) evaluate the performance of the model in simulating yield for 2 yr independent of the calibration years, and (iii) estimate the optimum N rate using 15 seasons of historical weather data (19892003).
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MATERIALS AND METHODS
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Study Site and Data Collection
This study was conducted on a relatively flat, 12.5-ha field in Paris, IL, managed using no-till practices and a cornsoybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotation since 1991. Relative elevation differed by only 1.97 m across the field. An Order 1 soil survey (1:8000) conducted by the USDA-NRCS in Illinois reveals that the dominant soils are Drummer silty clay loam (fine-silty, mixed, mesic Typic Endoaquoll), Brenton silt loam (fine-silty, mixed, mesic Aquic Argiudoll), and Raub silt loam (fine-silty, mixed, mesic Aquic Argiudoll). Manure from a hog house pit was applied to this field every other year between 1978 and 1996, and no P fertilizer was applied in most years during this period based on soil test results. The field used to be separated by a fencerow in the middle and was managed as two fields until the mid-1970s. Subsurface tile drainage was installed in this field. Grain yield has been measured since 1995 using a combine equipped with a differential global positioning system receiver and an AgLeader yield monitor (AgLeader Technology, Ames, IA). Corn was planted in 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, and 2003.
Maps for relative elevation, organic matter, slope, electrical conductivity, spatial trends in yield, and temporal stability in yield were classified into four MZs (Fig. 1
) using fuzzy cluster analysis as described by Miao et al. (2005). Key soil-landscape properties and spatial and temporal yield variability information in different zones are summarized in Table 1. More detailed information about data collection, processing, and MZ delineation can be found in Miao et al. (2005).
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Table 1. Summary of selected soil-landscape properties and spatial and temporal yield variability characteristics in different management zones.
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Crop Growth Model Description
In this study, the APOLLO (Application of Precision Agriculture for Field Management Optimization) decision support system (Batchelor et al., 2005) was used to characterize yield variability and simulate the results of different N management strategies in each management zone. The APOLLO system was developed to facilitate the application of the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) family of crop models in PCM, with CERES-Maize and CROPGRO models being the core component (Batchelor et al., 2005). The CERES-Maize model is a modified version of CERES-Maize 3.5, with a tile drainage subroutine incorporated (Garrison et al., 1999). CERES-Maize is a process-based crop growth model using inputs related to hybrid (genetic coefficients), crop management (planting date and population, row spacing, N fertilizer type, application amounts and date, etc.), soil properties (type, layers, runoff, albedo, water contents, drained upper limit and lower limit, drainage coefficients, N mineralization factor, fertility, organic C content, etc.), and weather parameters (daily maximum and minimum air temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation). The model estimates daily corn growth, development, and final grain yield (Jones and Kiniry, 1986). The APOLLO system links the simulated annealing optimization routines with the crop growth models and can optimize several soil parameters based on historical yield, management, and weather information, including SCS curve number, drainage rate, effective tile drainage rate, saturated hydraulic conductivity of impermeable layer, hard pan factor, depth of hard pan, root distribution reduction factor, N mineralization factor, soil fertility factor, and available soil water. Simulated annealing is a robust optimization algorithm that is analogous to the process of annealing in metals to "reach a minimum energy state on cooling a substance, but not too quickly to avoid reaching an undesirable state" (Paz et al., 1999). Compared with classical optimization algorithms (steepest decent and simplex methods), simulated annealing is more independent of starting values, has the ability to escape from local optima to reach global optimization, and has stringent assumptions regarding the function (Goffe et al., 1994). Simulated annealing has been used by several researchers to optimize crop model parameters (Calmon et al., 1999; Paz et al., 1999, 2001; Royce et al., 2001). More information about simulated annealing can be found in Goffe et al. (1994) and Press et al. (1996).
Model Input Data
Daily historical weather data (maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation) from 1989 to 2003 from the Waterworks weather station in Paris, IL, were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (Asheville, NC). Solar radiation data for Champaign, IL, were obtained from the Illinois State Water Survey (Champaign, IL). Growing season rainfall data for the past 15 yr (19892003) are summarized in Fig. 2
. An Order 1 soil survey (1:8000) conducted by the Illinois USDA-NRCS was used to determine the dominant soil type in each management zone, and the Edgar County Soil Survey (NRCS, 2002) was used to determine soil texture and bulk density in each soil layer. Soil hydraulic properties were estimated according to Ratliff et al. (1983), which is a required input to the CERES-Maize model. The initial saturated hydraulic conductivity was set to an average value of 79.2 cm d1. A soil organic matter map was used to adjust soil organic C content in the first three soil layers of each MZ. Management data from 1995 to 2003 were provided by the producer, including planting dates and density, and N fertilizer application rates. Fertilizing and harvesting dates were also available for 2001 and 2003, but were estimated for 1995 to 1997. A constant N rate of 174 kg ha1 was sidedressed in early June during the calibration years. The planting dates for 1989 to 1994 were estimated according to April through May weather conditions in each year. The genetic coefficients of 33G26 and 33J24 were provided by Pioneer Hybrid International, Inc. (Johnston, IA). A generic cultivar was used to represent the hybrids used in 1995, 1997, and 1999, since no genetic coefficients for those hybrids were available. The initial soil water content was assumed to be 0.35 and 0.45 m3 m3 for the 0- to 90- and 90- to 195-cm soil depths, respectively. Initial soil NH4 and NO3 contents were assumed to be 0.5 and 0.3 mg kg1, respectively.
Model Calibration and Evaluation
Four model input parameters (SCS curve number, effective tile drainage, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and fraction available soil water) were optimized for each MZ using the simulated annealing algorithms embedded in APOLLO to minimize the sum of square errors between simulated and measured yields for 1995, 1997, and 1999. Model performance (as a percentage) was evaluated using normalized differences between measured and simulated yield using the expression 100(simulated yield measured yield)/measured yield. Nitrogen fertilizers were sidedressed at a uniform rate of about 174 kg ha1 in early June each year.
On-farm N experiments were conducted in this field using a split-plot design, with four replications (blocks) in 2001 and 2003. The main plot consisted of five N rates: 0, 112, 168, 224, and 336 kg N ha1. The subplot treatments were two corn hybrids: Pioneer 33G26 (relative maturity 112 d) and 33J24 (relative maturity 112 d). The hybrids were planted side by side using the split-planter technique (Doerge and Gardner, 1999). Each strip (main plot) was 18.24 m wide (60 ft) and run across the whole field (200400 m long due to the irregular shape of the field). The measured yields for the two hybrids at the five N rates in different MZs in 2001 and 2003 were used to evaluate the performance of the model at different N levels.
Model Simulation
The calibrated CERES-Maize model was used to simulate corn response to N fertilization for both hybrids in each MZ at small N rate increments (70250 kg ha1 at 10 kg ha1 increments) for 15 yr (19892003) and the N rates that maximized net economic return were determined based on the following formula (Paz et al., 1999):
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where Y is corn yield (kg ha1), Pc is the price of corn grain (US$0.09833 kg1), N is applied N rate (kg ha1), and Pn is the cost of N (US$0.46 kg1).
The year-, hybrid- and MZ-specific EONRs were estimated based on model simulation results. Partial economic analyses were performed to evaluate different precision N management strategies, with URN at 170 kg ha1 as a base line for comparison.
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RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
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Model Calibration
After adjusting four soil parameters including SCS curve number, effective tile drainage rate, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and available soil water, the model explained 58.7% of corn yield variability across the three calibration years (1995, 1997, and 1999), and the average simulated yield was
10% lower than measured yield. The model performed worst in 1995 (simulation errors >20%), and best in 1999 (simulation errors <10%, except Zone 2).
These results could probably be improved if more information were available concerning initial soil water, NH4 and NO3 content in the spring, and actual plant population in each MZ, which were assumed to be uniform across different zones. To determine how such variability may affect the model results for corn yield, the calibrated model's sensitivity to the variability of initial soil water (0.050.45 m3 m3 at 0.05 m3 m3 increments in the top 75 cm) and NH4 content (0.13.0 mg kg1 at 0.5 mg kg1 increments) and crop population (69 plants m2 at 0.5 plants m2 increments) in each MZ were analyzed for normal, wet, and dry growing seasons. In normal or wet years, variation in the three model inputs was not a concern, because simulated corn yield generally varied <4%; however, in dry years, simulated yield could vary 10% or more. Simulated corn yield was more sensitive to plant population than to initial soil water and NH4 content (simulated yield generally varied <2%). Management Zone 2 had the highest relative elevation and lowest electrical conductivity (Table 1), so it was drier and much more sensitive to initial soil water conditions than other zones.
Different corn hybrids were planted in the field: FS 6532 was planted in 1995, Asgr 760 and FS 6576 were planted in 1997 in the east and west halves of the field, respectively, and Agrigold 6527 was planted in 1999. Since genetic coefficients for these hybrids were not available, a generic 2700 to 2750 growing degree day hybrid was used in the model, thereby introducing potential errors in simulation results as well.
Model Evaluation
The calibrated model was then used to simulate corn yield at different N rates (0, 112, 168, 224, and 336 kg ha1) in each MZ for 2001 and 2003. Averaged across N rates (0336 kg ha1), hybrids (33G26 and 33J24), years (2001 and 2003), and MZs (14), the model error during validation was 3.6% (average simulated yield was 9701 kg ha1, while the measured yield was 9361 kg ha1; Table 2) and the validated model explained >90% of the yield variability (Fig. 3
). In general, the model performed well at non-zero N levels (112336 kg ha1), with most of the average simulation errors being <10% (Table 2); however, the average simulation error varied from 21.9 to 25.1% at the 0 kg ha1 N rate. The model performed better in 2003 than in 2001, with 0.1 and 0.9% average simulation errors in 2003 for 33G26 and 33J24, respectively, compared with 7.3 and 10.9% average simulation errors in 2001 for 33G26 and 33J24, respectively.
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Table 2. Measured and simulated corn yield of two hybrids in different management zones (MZ) at different N levels during model validation (2001 and 2003).
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Fig. 3. Simulated vs. measured corn yield across hybrids (33G26 and 33J24), years (2001 and 2003), N application rates (0336 kg ha1), and management zones.
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A major difference between model calibration and model validation was the availability of correct genetic coefficients, and planting, fertilizing, and harvesting dates during validation. The model performed much better for 2001 and 2003 data than for 1995, 1997, and 1999 data (R2 > 90% in 2001 and 2003 vs. R2 < 60% in 1995, 1997, and 1999), indicating the importance of using the correct model inputs. Basso et al. (2001) and Braga (2000) evaluated CROPGRO-Soybean and CERES-Maize models, respectively, for site-specific modeling without calibration (all model input properties were measured), and obtained close agreement between measured and simulated yields, with an average RMSE of 198 kg ha1 for soybean in 52 grids, and 501 kg ha1 for corn in 43 grids.
Growing season (MaySeptember) precipitation was normal during 2001 (519.9 mm) and wet during 2003 (640.1 mm), while it was dry during the growing seasons of 1999 (311.9 mm), 1997 (400.1 mm), and 1995 (429.5 mm). These precipitation differences may also contribute to an improvement in model performance for 2001 and 2003 compared with calibration years, because simulated corn water uptake of three crop growth models (CropSyst, CERES-Maize, and Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator [EPIC]) was found to be consistently more accurate under wet than dry conditions (Jara and Stockle, 1999).
Manure was applied in this field in 1994 and 1996, but the detailed application information was not available, and N contributions from manure application were not simulated in the model. This may explain the poor model performances in 1995 and 1997, since these 2 yr would be affected the most. The validation years (2001 and 2003) were at least 5 yr after any manure application and would not be significantly affected, which may be another reason for the improved validation results.
At the MZ level, simulated yield errors were larger when no N fertilizer was applied, varying from 34.1 to 111.6% (Table 2). At the other N rates, the simulated error was much smaller, varying from 11.6 to 20% (Table 2). The spatial variation in simulated yield error was expected, because the model was only calibrated for four soil hydrologic properties, without incorporating the spatial variation across the landscape in soil water redistribution, corn population, and soil residual N content. When no N fertilizer was applied, the model performance was more limited by information about spatial variability in N mineralization rate and soil residual N than when N was not limited, because these were the main sources of N under such situations. In MZ 2 and 4, simulated yields at 0 kg ha1 N were consistently higher in 2001, but consistently lower in 2003, compared with measured yield. There may be significantly higher N mineralization in 2003 than 2001, and the model may not simulate that variation well. Although the model has functions to adjust N mineralization rates according to soil water content and temperature (Godwin and Jones, 1991), they may need to be improved. The model consistently overestimated corn yield in MZ1, but underestimated yield in MZ3 (Table 2). Probably two other parameters, SLNF and SLPF, should also be optimized during the calibration process. The SLNF factor can be used to adjust the potential N mineralization rate for specific soils and the SLPF factor can be used to adjust potential daily canopy photosynthesis due to unknown soil or environmental factors that persist at a specific location (Tsuji et al., 1994).
Another important factor that may contribute to the simulation errors is the impact of a cornsoybean rotation, the beneficial effect of which has long been recognized. Increased N availability to corn has usually been identified as an important factor, in addition to other factors like reduced pest problems (Varvel and Wilhelm, 2003). The reported amount of N contribution from soybean to corn in rotations has varied from
30 to 75 kg ha1 N (Blevins et al., 1990; Ding et al., 1998; Varvel and Wilhelm, 2003). Oberle and Keeney (1990) reported that N contributions from soybean to first-year corn varied with soil type. Soybean yields have been found to vary both spatially and temporally within a field (Jaynes and Colvin, 1997), so N credits from soybean may also vary spatially and temporally based on the rule of thumb that 56 kg (1 bu) of soybean yield can contribute 0.454 kg (1 lb) of N to the subsequent corn crop (Pan et al., 1997). Although both CERES-Maize and CROPGRO-Soybean models are included in the APOLLO system, they cannot be run together to simulate the cornsoybean rotation effect yet. This feature needs to be included in future improvements.
Temporal Variability of Simulated Optimal Nitrogen Rate and Yield
Growing season (MaySeptember) rainfall during the past 15 yr (19892003) varied from as low as 312 mm in 1999 to as much as 874 mm in 1989 (Fig. 1). Based on the Decile Classification Method developed by Gibbs and Maher (1967), 1999 had a very dry growing season, 6 yr (1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1997, and 2002) had dry growing seasons, 3 yr (1996, 2000, and 2001) had normal growing seasons, 2 yr (1990 and 2003) had wet growing seasons, while 3 yr (1989, 1993, and 1998) had very wet growing seasons. As a result, the model-simulated EONRs varied from year to year (Fig. 4
and 5)
, with CVs varying from 21.4 to 30.0% for 33G26, and from 24.2 to 33.1% for 33J24 (Table 3). The EONRs were highest in 1996 (200230 kg ha1 for 33G26, and 190230 kg ha1 for 33J24), and lowest in 1998 (70100 kg ha1 for 33G26, and 70110 kg ha1 for 33J24). The general trend of EONR across years (Fig. 4 and 5) and the 15-yr average EONRs in each MZ were similar between the two hybrids, but in some years (1989 and 1990), EONRs for 33G26 were significantly higher than for 33J24. These results demonstrate the risks of estimating EONRs using only a few years of data. The estimated EONRs may be vastly different, depending on weather in the years chosen for study. For example, if EONRs in 1993, 1994, 1995, and 1996 were averaged to estimate the N rates to be applied in 1997 and 1998, the N rates would be overestimated by 52.5 to 122.5 kg ha1. The 15-yr average EONR for the two hybrids showed similar spatial patterns, with the lowest values in MZ 2 (134 and 133 kg ha1 for 33G26 and 33J24, respectively) and the highest values in MZ 3 (165 and 160 kg ha1 for 33G26 and 33J24, respectively), with a difference of
30 kg N ha1. This suggests that hybrid-specific N management may not be necessary for these two hybrids in most years or in some MZs. The EONRs showed the greatest differences among MZs in years with weather patterns showing the greatest departure from normal (1993, 1999, and 2002).

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Fig. 4. Model-simulated economically optimal N rate (EONR) for hybrid 33G26 in each management zone (MZ) during the past 15 yr (19892003).
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Fig. 5. Model-simulated economically optimal N rate (EONR) for hybrid 33J24 in each management zone (MZ) during the past 15 yr (19892003).
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Table 3. Summary of model-simulated economically optimal N rate (EONR) and corn yield at EONR in different management zones (MZ) across 15 yr (19892003).
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Simulated corn yield at EONR also varied significantly from year to year (Fig. 6
and 7)
, with CVs varying from 25.8 to 29.8% for 33G26, and from 24.0 to 29.6% for 33J24 (Table 3). Similar to EONR, simulated corn yield at EONR may be significantly different in some years between the two hybrids, but their 15-yr average yields were very similar in each MZ (Table 3). The average simulated yield at EONR of both hybrids followed the same order: MZ 1 > MZ 2 > MZ 3 > MZ 4. This order is a little different from the order previously determined using 6 yr of normalized corn and soybean yield (19952000): MZ 1 (102.7%)
MZ 3 (102.5%) > MZ 2 (97.6%) > MZ 4 (94.0%), but the general trend was similar in that MZ 1 had the highest yield and MZ 4 had the lowest yield. The normalized yield method is based on both corn and soybean yield. The corn yield was obtained from several hybrids managed with uniform N application, while the model-based method was based on corn yield for a specific hybrid at EONR. The yield rankings based on measured yield are limited by the number of years that have actual yield maps, while the model-based method does not have this limitation. Simulated yield results also supported the observation that higher yield may not necessarily require a higher EONR (Vanotti and Bundy, 1994; Doerge, 2002).

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Fig. 6. Model-simulated yield at economically optimal N rate (EONR) for hybrid 33G26 in each management zone (MZ) during the past 15 yr (19892003).
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Fig. 7. Model-simulated yield at economically optimal N rate (EONR) for hybrid 33J24 in each management zone (MZ) during the past 15 yr (19892003).
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Economic Analysis of Different Nitrogen Management Strategies
Several strategies can be adopted to improve N management. The ideal strategy is to apply N at year-, hybrid- and MZ-specific EONRs. It was found that an average increase of US$49 and US$52 ha1 in marginal net returns could be obtained across the 15 simulation years (19892003) in comparison to returns at a typical URN application of 170 kg ha1 that producers apply in this region (Table 4). This would represent the best economic potential of precision N management. It is not possible to attain this potential, however, due to uncertainty in estimating EONRs in advance without knowing weather conditions during the upcoming growing season.
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Table 4. Simulated marginal net return of three N management strategies over uniform rate N (URN) application at 170 kg ha1 averaged across 15 yr (19892003).
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A practical strategy to overcome this difficulty is to calculate the average hybrid- and MZ-specific EONRs across years, and then apply these same rates each year. In reality, the average EONR is not likely to be hybrid specific, due to the short-term availability of most commercial hybrids; however, with computer simulation models, the impact of hybrid on EONR can be investigated. In this study, the 15-yr average hybrid- and MZ-specific EONRs were calculated and used to estimate corn yield in each zone for 15 yr. It was found that this approach increased net economic returns by an average of US$23 ha1 for 33G26, but reduced economic returns by US$4 ha1 for 33J24 (Table 4) compared with returns for URN application at 170 kg ha1. This approach worked best for 33G26 in MZ 2, where an average increase of US$89 ha1 in net return could be achieved, and performed worst in MZ 1, where the economic return was reduced by US$13 ha1 for 33J24. These results indicate that this approach may not be as reliable as previously hypothesized. Results using this approach depend on specific combinations of hybrids and soil landscape conditions, and thus should be used with caution.
A third strategy for precision N management is to apply hybrid-specific N rates that could maximize long-term (15-yr) average marginal net returns in each MZ. Figure 8
shows that the 15-yr average returns of the two corn hybrids (33G26 and 33J24) at different N rates differed across MZs. The N rates that maximized the 15-yr average net economic returns were 170, 130, 180, and 160 kg ha1 for 33G26 in MZ 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively, and 200, 150, 190, and 190 kg ha1 for 33J24 in the same four MZs, respectively. Averaged across MZs, this approach could increase marginal net return by an average of US$22 and US$14 ha1 over URN application for 33G26 and 33J24, respectively. Reducing N rates from 170 to 130 (33G26) and 150 (33J24) kg ha1 in MZ 2 increased the net return by an average of US$86 and US$28 ha1 for 33G26 and 33J24, respectively. None of the MZs had a 15-yr average net return lower than that for URN application. Therefore, this approach appears to be more profitable than the second approach, which involves applying average EONRs. Figure 8 also shows some unexplained bumps and bounces in average economic return responses to N rate, indicating that more years of simulation may be needed to get smooth responses with this model. More studies are needed to test the reliability of this approach and understand how these average N rates can be fine-tuned each year to further improve economic returns according to early growing season weather conditions, planting dates, or other situations that may have an impact on corn response to N fertilization.

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Fig. 8. The 15-yr average marginal net return for two hybrids (33G26 and 33J24) in four management zones (MZ14) at different N rates based on model simulation.
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CONCLUSIONS
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This study used 3 yr of historical corn yield data to calibrate a modified version of CERES-Maize 3.5, evaluated its performance in simulating corn yield at different N levels for two independent years, and estimated EONRs based on 15-yr simulation results in a commercial field previously divided into four management zones. The results indicated that the model could explain
59% of the measured yield variability in corn for the three calibration years (1995, 1997, and 1999). The model performed much better during the 2001 and 2003 validation years than during calibration, explaining 92.7% of the measured corn yield variability across years (2001 and 2003), N rates, hybrids (33G26 and 33J24), and MZs. This improvement was attributed to using correct genetic coefficients and planting, fertilizing, and harvesting dates; having adequate precipitation during the two growing seasons of validation; and having no effects from the application of manure. The model performed well at non-zero N rates, with most of the simulation errors being <10%. The model performance in simulating yield variability at the 0 kg ha1 N rate was not satisfactory, with simulation errors varying from 34.1 to 111.6% at the MZ level; however, this may not prevent the model from being used for estimating MZ optimal N rates, since they are rarely around 0 kg ha1 in Illinois, where the study was conducted.
The EONRs for the two hybrids were estimated in each MZ during each of the past 15 yr (19892003). The EONR values varied from 70 to 250 kg ha1, with CVs varying from 21.4 to 30.0%. The 15-yr average EONRs and yield at EONR were very similar between the two hybrids in three of the four MZs. Economic analyses indicated that applying N fertilizer at year-, hybrid- and MZ-specific EONRs had the potential to increase marginal net return by an average of US$49 and US$52 ha1 over returns based on URN application at 170 kg ha1 for 33G26 and 33J24, respectively. Applying the long-term (15 yr) average hybrid- and MZ-specific EONRs across years did not consistently improve the 15-yr average marginal net return over URN application; however, applying the hybrid- and site-specific EONRs that maximized 15-yr average marginal net returns across years improved return over URN application by an average of US$22 and US$14 ha1 for 33G26 and 33J24, respectively. Simulation results consistently showed that MZ 2 would need lower N rates (130150 kg ha1) for both hybrids than other MZs. We conclude that this crop growth model is a valuable tool that has the potential to improve corn N management and economic returns. The APOLLO system needs to be improved to simulate the cornsoybean rotation effect, which can influence optimal N rate estimation. More studies are needed to develop, test, and apply model-based precision N management strategies.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
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This study was funded by Cargill Crop Nutrition (now Mosaic), Cargill Dry Corn Ingredients, and Pioneer Hi-Bred International, and partly by a block travel grant offered by the Graduate School at the University of Minnesota. We would like to thank Mr. Ron Olson, Kirby Wuethrich, and other employees from the three funding companies for assistance in this study, local farmer Mr. Gene Barkley for his support and cooperation, and USDA-NRCS in Illinois for conducting an Order 1 soil survey of the study field.
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NOTES
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Contribution of the Precision Agriculture Center, Univ. of Minnesota.
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