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Agronomy Journal 93:250-260 (2001)
© 2001 American Society of Agronomy

MODELING

Assessing Simple Wheat and Pea Models Using Data from a Long-Term Tillage Experiment

William A. Payne, Paul E. Rasmussen, Chengci Chen and Robert E. Ramig

Oregon State Univ., Columbia Basin Agric. Res. Cent., P.O. Box 370, Pendleton, OR 97801

Corresponding author (w-payne{at}tamu.edu)


    ABSTRACT
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 Materials and methods
 NOTES
 Results
 Discussion
 REFERENCES
 
Fresh green pea (Pisum sativum L.) and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) are grown in rotation with intensive tillage in northeast Oregon. We evaluated simple yield models for both crops using data from a long-term experiment that included four tillage treatments and soil water content measurements. Yields were affected by tillage for some of the 21 yr of study, but there was no consistent ranking among tillage treatments from year to year and no effect when data were pooled. Standardizing pea yields to a tenderometer reading of 100 failed to improve detection of treatment effect. Tillage affected wheat water use (ET) for three of the study years and water use efficiency (WUEET) for one. Conservation tillage reduced pea ET for seven of the study years. For combined years, however, there was no tillage effect on yield, ET, or WUEET of either crop. Wheat yield was better predicted from ET than by the Leggett model, which uses March soil water storage and spring rain . Yield prediction was improved when ET was divided by seasonal mean daily water vapor pressure deficit () . Multiple-regression equations using monthly rain predicted wheat yield well , but coefficients differed among data sets. A model using monthly rain and heat degree day sum (HDDS) predicted pea yield much better than ET-based equations , suggesting that pea yield is limited by factors other than water. For wheat, ET/-based models should replace the Leggett model. However, for pea, multiple regression models predict yield better than ET-based models.

Abbreviations: ANOVA, analysis of variance • DOY, day of the year • ET, crop water use (transpiration + evaporation of water from the soil surface) • Fall R-CH, fall roto-till wheat residue and chisel plow pea residue • Fall MBD-MBD, fall moldboard plow wheat residue and moldboard plow pea residue • Fall SWP-SKW, fall sweep wheat residue and skew-tread pea residue • HDDS, heat degree day sum • Spring MBD-MBD, spring moldboard plow wheat residue and moldboard plow pea residue • , mean daily water vapor pressure deficit for the growing season • WUEET, water use efficiency (crop yield/ET)


    INTRODUCTION
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 Materials and methods
 NOTES
 Results
 Discussion
 REFERENCES
 
FRESH GREEN PEA is grown in rotation with soft white winter wheat in areas of the inland Pacific Northwest of the USA, including northeast Oregon. Due to the rainfall shadow effect of the Cascade Mountains, this region has a semiarid, Mediterranean-type climate in which most precipitation is received between October and March and little to none is received from May to late July when crops are maturing. Water supply is almost always limiting to winter wheat production.

Simple models have been used to predict yield of wheat and pea. Winter wheat yield in this region was linearly related to the sum of soil water storage in March plus the amount of subsequent spring rain (Leggett, 1959). This model is still widely used today to predict yield potential and to estimate N requirements of crops. The sum used by the Leggett model serves essentially as a proxy for ET, which has also been linearly related to yield of wheat and many other crops (e.g., Hanks, 1983). However, the Leggett model does not take into account ET from sowing to the time of measurement of soil water storage in March or reduced crop water availability due to runoff or drainage. It also does not take into account the annual variation in atmospheric evaporative demand, which influences the relation between crop yield and ET (e.g., De Wit, 1958).

There are fewer studies on ET of pea than there are on ET of wheat. Farah et al. (1988) found pea ET to range from 350 to 500 mm yr-1. Gregory (1984) attributed lower transpiration efficiencies at Akron, CO to greater atmospheric evaporative demand. In the inland Pacific Northwest, pea has been found to be more sensitive than wheat to water availability during the growing season and especially sensitive to high temperatures near harvest time (Pumphrey et al., 1979). During May and June, even one day of excessive heat can reduce pea yield and quality (Kraft et al., 1991).

Multiple-regression models that use rain and temperature as inputs have also been used to predict yield of winter wheat and fresh pea. These models have the advantage that ET data are not required. Ramig and Pumphrey (1977) found that overwinter (Sept.–Mar.) and growing-season (Apr., May, and June) precipitation accounted for 64% of the year-to-year variation in wheat yields. Pumphrey et al. (1979) found good correlation between fresh pea yield and the rain and temperature distribution during a 40-yr period.

Fresh pea is harvested and graded based on its tenderness, as measured by a tenderometer, rather than on its moisture content or physiological maturity. The optimum tenderometer readings for pea harvest are between 90 and 110 (Pumphrey et al., 1975; Kraft et al., 1991). Near harvest, pea weight increases rapidly while tenderness decreases rapidly. This makes it more difficult for models to accurately predict yield and for agronomists to interpret experimental data because the apparent treatment differences may be due to effects upon maturity (Pumphrey et al, 1975). Pumphrey et al. (1975) introduced a method of standardizing yields to a tenderometer reading of 100, but to our knowledge, it has not been tested on an independent data set as a method of improving the precision of simple yield models or detecting treatment effects.

Soils of the inland Pacific Northwest are prone to erosion, especially during the winter, when precipitation occurs during freezing and thawing events on fields planted to winter wheat (Zuzel, 1994). During such events, wheat seedlings provide very little ground cover, infiltration rates of the frozen soils are very low, and erodibility of the intensively worked soil is high. Despite the high erosion potential in the inland Pacific Northwest, most winter wheat–fresh pea systems include intensive tillage to reduce heavy crop residues at planting and to control pathogens and weeds. A common tillage sequence for pea production includes fall plowing of wheat stubble, spring tooth harrowing, a second and possibly third harrowing, and after planting, packing the soil with a roller and attached harrow (Hoag et al., 1984). Winter wheat is also planted into intensively worked ground (Hammel, 1995; Pikul et al., 1993).

Tillage systems that maintain residue cover, especially during the winter months, are recognized as important methods of reducing soil degradation and erosion. However, it is not clear that such conservation tillage systems are as economically profitable as conventional tillage systems. For example, Kraft et al. (1991) found that a tillage program for a winter wheat–fresh pea rotation in the inland Pacific Northwest that included the moldboard plow, three cultivations, and post-sowing packing of the soil gave a larger annual return than conservation tillage systems. Similarly, Hammel (1995) found in a 4-yr study that zero tillage systems obtained only 72% of the yield of conventional moldboard plow systems, whereas conservation tillage obtained 92%.

The objectives of this study were (i) to compare the tillage effects on the yield and yield water-use relations of a wheat–pea cropping system during a 21-yr period in eastern Oregon, and (ii) to evaluate simple yield models that use monthly weather data or ET to predict the yields of winter wheat and fresh pea.


    Materials and methods
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 Materials and methods
 NOTES
 Results
 Discussion
 REFERENCES
 
Data were taken from one of the long-term studies located at the Columbia Basin Agricultural Research Center (45°43' N, 118°38' W; elev. 490 m) near Pendleton, OR. The mean annual precipitation at the station is ~400 mm, and the soil is a Walla Walla silt loam (coarse, silty, mixed mesic Typic Haploxeroll).

From 1967 to 1991, fresh pea was grown in rotation with wheat. The experimental design was a randomized block with four replications. Each replicate contained eight plots (two crops x four tillage treatments). The location of the pea and wheat within a replicate alternated from year to year. Originally, the individual plot size was 7.7 by 36.5 m. In 1976, the east half of the experiment received 2020 kg ha-1 lime. Thereafter, only yield data from the unlimed half were used for analysis.

The wheat varieties used were Nugaines from 1967 to 1974, Hyslop from 1975 to 1978, and Stephens after 1979. From 1967 to 1981, the winter wheat received 45 kg N ha-1 as ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) (34–0–0). This rate was increased to 67 kg ha-1 in 1982, and again to 90 kg ha-1 in 1985. Ammonium nitrate was broadcast before planting, which occurred as soon after 10 October as soil moisture was sufficient for germination and early crop growth. In 1974, winter wheat was killed by frost; therefore, wheat was planted the following spring.

Pea was planted in late March or early April and harvested in late June or early July. The variety Dark Skin Perfection was used throughout the experiment. Pea traditionally received 22.4 kg N ha-1 as either ammonium sulfate [(NH4)2SO4] (21–0–0–24S) or ammonium phosphate sulfate (16–20–0–14S).

The primary tillage treatments are summarized below. Additional details on secondary tillage operations were given by Payne et al. (2000).

Treatment 1: Roto-Till and Chisel Plow (Fall R-CH)
Wheat stubble was roto-tilled to a depth of 10 cm in August. In the spring, plots were sprayed for weeds with glyphosate [N-(phosphonomethyl)glycine], swept once with a V-shaped sweep to a depth of 5 to7 cm, and rod-weeded. Pea plots were swept to a depth of 5 to 7 cm after harvest in July. In late September or early October, they were chisel-plowed twice to a depth of 30 to 38 cm and then rod-weeded to a depth of ~4 cm before seeding wheat. Residue cover in the fall following pea was ~10%; residue cover in the fall following wheat was ~40%.

Treatment 2: Fall Moldboard Plow and Moldboard Plow (Fall MBD-MBD)
Wheat stubble was moldboard-plowed in July to a depth of ~20 cm. In the spring, plots were sprayed for weeds, tilled twice with a spring-tooth harrow to a depth of ~15 cm, and roller-harrowed before seeding pea if necessary. The spring-tooth harrow was equipped with C-shaped shanks. Pea vines were moldboard-plowed in July to a depth of ~20 cm, sprayed with herbicide to control weeds if necessary, tilled twice with a light disc harrow ~10 cm deep, and roller-harrowed to reduce clods before seeding wheat. The residue cover in the fall following pea was ~1%; the residue cover in the fall following wheat was ~5%.

Treatment 3: Spring Moldboard Plow and Moldboard Plow (Spring MBD-MBD)
Wheat stubble was spring moldboard-plowed to a depth of ~20 cm. Secondary tillage and management of the pea vines were the same as in Treatment 2. Residue cover in the fall following pea was ~1%; residue cover in the fall following wheat was ~80%.

Treatment 4: Fall Sweep and Skew-Tread (Fall SWP-SKW)
Wheat stubble was skew-treaded once or twice in March with a Durham (Durham, OH) skewtread1. The skewtread is a bidirectional, light tillage implement. As used in this experiment, it is similar to a culti-hoe and much less aggressive than a rotary hoe. In the reverse direction, it is similar to a culti-packer. Plots were swept once to a depth of ~5 cm and rod-weeded before planting pea. Pea vines were skew-treaded 2 to 3 times in the summer. In the spring, plots were sprayed if necessary and rod-weeded twice. Pea vines were swept in July and again in October before wheat was planted. Residue cover in the fall following pea was ~20%; residue cover in the fall following wheat was ~80%.

The Spring MBD-MBD and especially the Fall SWP-SKW treatments can be considered as conservation tillage systems in terms of residue cover and erosion control, especially during the crucial winter months. Conversely, the Fall R-CH and, especially for Pendleton area, the Fall MBD-MBD treatments can be considered as conventional.

Allmaras et al. (1987) and Pikul et al. (1993) detected no differences in soil saturated hydraulic conductivity among these tillage treatments. However, bulk density profiles did differ among tillage treatments (Pikul et al., 1993). All but the Fall SWP-SKW treatment had tillage pans, but the Spring MBD-MBD treatment tended to have a tillage pan that was more compact than that of the Fall MBD-MBD treatment. Bulk density was greater near the surface for the Fall SWP-SKW treatment, but it decreased with depth. Furthermore, the surface organic matter content was greater near the surface for the Fall SWP-SKW treatment, and pH was lower (Pikul et al., 1993).

Neutron access tubes were installed in the eastern half of each experimental plot to a depth of 2.44 m or until semi-impermeable contact (calcareous hardpan or basalt bedrock) was reached. From 1967 to 1989, neutron probe measurements were taken at intervals of 31 cm in depth from three to several times during the growing season to determine soil water content. Until October 1974, a Troxler neutron probe (model 1255) and scaler rate meter (model 2651) were used (Troxler Lab., Research Triangle Park, NC). Thereafter, a CPN (model 503) neutron probe was used (Campbell Pacific Nucl., Pacheco, CA). Instrument failure early in the summer of 1979 prevented an estimation of total wheat ET.

Neutron probes were field-calibrated. For the Troxler probe, internal standard counts were taken several times during the day of measurement. Additionally, readings were taken in each of three manufacturer-provided containers with known volumetric water contents on a weekly basis. Count ratios for these manufacturer-provided containers over the 5-yr period had a coefficient of variation of <0.01. The CPN probe was field-calibrated several times during its 15 yr of use. A typical calibration had an r2 of 0.92 and a standard error of estimate of 0.0094.

Crop ET was calculated using the soil water balance equation

(1)
where dS is cumulative change in the amount of water stored within the crop root zone, P is precipitation, and D is drainage from the root zone. Root zone depth was assumed to be 1.22 m for pea and 1.83 m for wheat. Estimates of D were made using unsaturated flow equations developed by Payne (1998). Depending upon the pressure potential gradient at the root zone, which was estimated from the soil moisture retention curves of Pikul (1988), D could be negative or positive. For almost all years of this study, D was negligible. Runoff and runon, which were not measured in this experiment because plots were on relatively level (<=2% slope) ground, are ignored in Eq. [1].

Pea yields are reported on a fresh weight basis, and wheat yields are reported on a dry weight basis. To calculate WUEET, yield was divided by ET. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) for pea and wheat yields was made for each year, using tillage as the only experimental factor, and again for all years, using tillage and year as experimental factors. For pea, an ANOVA was also made for yields that were corrected to 100% tenderometer readings using the equation of Pumphrey et al. (1975):

(2)
where Ypy is percent yield to be calculated, and T is tenderometer reading. An ANOVA was also made for the effects of tillage on ET and WUEET.

Wheat yield was regressed on the sum of soil water storage in March in the profile plus growing-season rain to evaluate the model of Leggett (1959) for this particular data set. The last neutron probe reading taken between 20 March and 10 April was used to calculate soil water storage in March. Years without readings within this interval were not used in this analysis. Rain that was received after this neutron probe reading and before harvest was summed to obtain spring rain.

Yields of pea and wheat were regressed on ET and ET/ to correct for seasonal differences in atmospheric evaporative demand (Gregory, 1984; Payne, 1997). Daily maximum and minimum relative humidity and air temperature were used to obtain using equations found in Campbell (1977).

Wheat yields were modeled using multiple regression, with winter (Oct. – Mar.), April, May, and June rains as inputs (Ramig and Pumphrey, 1977). The pea yield model of Pumphrey et al. (1979), which was developed using data from 1945 to 1977, was used to evaluate its ability to predict fresh pea yield for this independent data set. The Pumphrey model combines monthly precipitation data with an index of the heat stress during the blooming and pod-filling periods in May and June:

(3)
where y is the estimated yield, {alpha} is a constant, b1 through b5 are regression coefficients, x1 is the precipitation sum for October through March, x2 is the precipitation sum for April, x3 is the precipitation sum for May, x4 is the precipitation sum for June, and x5 is the HDDS for that particular year. The HDDS was defined by Pumphrey et al. (1979) as

(4)
where i indexes each day from 10 May (prebloom initiation) to harvest, Ti is daily maximum air temperature (°C), and B is a base temperature of 25.6°C.


    Results
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 Materials and methods
 NOTES
 Results
 Discussion
 REFERENCES
 
Weather
During the 20 yr of this study, followed a remarkably conservative pattern (Fig. 1a) . It increased from ~0.1 kPa at the beginning of the year to ~1.2 kPa near day of the year (DOY) 220, corresponding to late July and early August. Thereafter, values decreased rapidly until ~DOY 300, or early November, and continued to decrease at a lesser rate until the end of the year. The tended to be greater for pea than for wheat because pea was planted in the spring when temperatures were rising and the atmospheric humidity was falling (Fig. 1b and 1c). The exception was in 1974 when spring wheat was grown. Because the ratio of yield/ET decreases as increases (e.g., Tanner and Sinclair, 1983), the data illustrate that WUEET will almost always be greater for winter wheat than for spring wheat under these growing conditions.



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Fig. 1 (a) Mean daily vapor pressure deficits (s) and mean seasonal s for (b) pea and (c) wheat from 1968 to 1988 at the Columbia Basin Agricultural Experiment Station near Pendleton, OR

 
Rain amounts for overwinter (Sept.–Mar.) precipitation, growing-season (Apr.–June) precipitation, and their sum are shown in Fig. 2 . There was no apparent relation between precipitation and for pea while there was perhaps a weak inverse relation between precipitation and for wheat.



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Fig. 2 (a) Total, (b) growing season (Apr.–June), and (c) winter (Oct.–Mar.) rain for pea and wheat from 1968 to 1988 at the Columbia Basin Agricultural Experiment Station near Pendleton, OR. Curves for vapor pressure deficit were generated using distance-weighted least squares with SYSTAT (v. 7)

 
Yield
Winter Wheat
Throughout the 22 yr of this experiment, tillage only affected the wheat yield during 4 yr (1969, 1975, 1978, and 1979) (Table 1). For three of these four, the Fall SWP-SKW treatment yielded the least. When the data from all of the years were pooled, there was no effect of tillage. These results agree with the conclusion of Pikul et al. (1993) that conservation tillage has inconsequential effects on crop production but favorable effects upon the soil, such as the absence of a tillage pan and greater erosion control. However, when fresh pea was replaced by dry pea in later years, the Fall SWP-SKW treatment yielded about 400 kg ha-1 less wheat than the other tillage systems (Payne et al., 2000), probably due to inadequate control of downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.). Young et al. (1994) demonstrated the importance of weed control in no-till systems.


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Table 1 Tillage effects on yield of winter wheat at the Columbia Basin Agricultural Research Center, near Pendleton, OR. Yield in 1974 is for spring wheat due to winter kill

 
Pea
The tillage effects on pea were significant from 1968 to 1971 and in 1973, 1977, 1979, 1981, and 1986 (Table 2); but there was no consistent ranking among the tillage treatments. During the first 4 yr of the study, the Spring MBD-MBD and Fall SWP-SKW treatments tended to yield more than the Fall R-CH and Fall MBD-MBD treatments. In 1979, the Fall R-CH treatment yielded more than the Fall SWP-SKW treatment. In 1981, the Fall SWP-SKW treatment yielded more than the Fall MBD-MBD treatment, and in 1986, the Fall R-CH and Fall MBD-MBD treatments had greater yields than the Fall SWP-SKW treatment. It is difficult to explain the yield differences due to tillage treatments within any given year from the available data. In general, the weed control was better in the plowed treatments. However, other factors that were affected differentially by the tillage and residue cover may have contributed, including surface temperature, water evaporation from the soil surface, or infiltration rates during thawing. In some years, e.g., 1972, 1976, and 1982, mean values for yield differed considerably among tillage treatments, but the variation between replicates was such that differences were not statistically significant. When all of the years were combined, there was no detectable effect of tillage on yield.


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Table 2 The effects of four tillage systems on fresh pea yield, tenderometer rating, and pea yields estimated at 100% tenderometer. Model R2 are for Eq. [3] using yield or yield at 100% tenderometer. Data were taken from 1968 to 1988 at the Pendleton Experiment Station, east Oregon. Pea was killed by frost in 1987. Tenderometer data were not available for 1988.{dagger}

 
The yield results for pea also reinforce the conclusion of Pikul et al. (1993) that conservation tillage has inconsequential effects on crop production and favorable effects on soil properties. Tillage did not have any effect on pea yield in later years when fresh pea was replaced by dry pea (Payne et al., 2000).

Tenderometer scores differed due to tillage in 1968, 1970, 1971, 1976, 1978, 1979, 1981, 1983, and 1984 (Table 2). When data from all of the years were combined, tenderometer scores for the Spring MBD-MBD treatment tended to be about four points greater than those of the Fall SWP-SKW treatment. The tenderometer readings for the Fall SWP-SKW tillage treatment were slightly less than the optimum range of 90 to 110 (Pumphrey et al., 1975; Kraft et al., 1991). Because plant development is governed strongly by temperature (Olivier and Annandale, 1998), this suggests that pea in the Fall SWP-SKW treatment tended to mature more slowly than in the other treatments, perhaps due to cooler soil temperatures in the spring.

The curvilinear nature of Eq. [2], which Pumphrey et al. (1975) proposed to standardize fresh pea readings to a tenderometer score of 100, made a proportionally greater correction for tenderometer readings <95. For example, pea yield increased from 6076 to 8657 kg ha-1 in 1972 when the tenderometer reading of 89.5 was substituted into Eq. [2]. Incorporating the tenderometer readings did not alter the significance of the tillage treatments in any year although groupings of means did change for certain years, e.g., 1968 and 1977 (Table 2).

Our data (Fig. 3a) suggest that there is no unique relation between yield and tenderometer score. Trends that were particular to individual years occurred, but there was no obvious relation for other years. Indeed, some years, e.g., 1972, 1974, and 1984, the data were even inconsistent with the generalized statement that yield increases as tenderness decreases (i.e., as tenderometer readings increase). Equation [2] was developed by Pumphrey et al. (1975) using sequential harvest data, apparently during the same year, from four dryland experiments (Fig. 3b). Yield and tenderness data that were taken the same year from irrigated experiments resulted in a different empirical curve to describe the relation between yield and tenderness. Their data demonstrate what is already well known, i.e., pea becomes harder and heavier as it matures. However, our data, taken under experimental conditions that were quite different, demonstrate that Eq. [2] probably cannot be applied to independent data sets. Factors that complicate efforts at developing a single relation between yield and tenderness include wind, temperature, humidity, available soil moisture, and soil fertility (Pumphrey et al., 1975). The need to compare yields of fresh pea at a common tenderometer reading remains, but there is no consistent empirical relation between the two.



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Fig. 3 Relation between pea yield and tenderometer reading for (A) a 20-yr period at the Columbia Basin Agricultural Experiment Station near Pendleton, OR and (B) four experiments conducted near Pendleton by Pumphrey et al. (1975). For graph A, yields are averaged over tillage treatments

 
Crop Water Use and Water Use Efficiency
Winter Wheat
Wheat ET differed due to tillage only in 1968, 1969, and 1976 (Table 3). The only year during which the wheat WUEET differed due to tillage was 1968. There were individual years for which there were large differences in the treatment means, e.g., 1972, but within-treatment variability was such that these were not statistically significant. There was a strongly linear relation between wheat WUEET and yield (Fig. 4) that was consistent with Stewart's (1989) conclusion that the greatest WUEET is achieved at the greatest yield. Figure 4 suggests that the WUEET continued to increase with yield under conditions of similar management and variable water supply because most of the points are from years during which N application was constant (45 kg N ha-1 from 1967–1981). This contrasts somewhat with Ritchie's (1983) analysis of Jensen and Sletten's (1965) data for wheat grown at a fixed N fertilization rate and variable water supply, which suggested an approximately constant value of WUEET for a given management level. Their data, which was obtained under irrigated conditions, ranged from ~4 to ~8 Mg ha-1 for yield and from ~17 to ~20 kg ha-1 mm-1 for WUEET. These represent greater values than we generally obtained under dryland conditions in the inland Pacific Northwest. Under our conditions, WUEET does not appear to have asymptotically approached an upper limit predicted by Viets' (1962) Model B for the relation between WUEET and yield.


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Table 3 The effects of four tillage systems on water use (ET) and water use efficiency (WUEET) of winter wheat from 1968 to 1988 at the Columbia Basin Agricultural Research Station, near Pendleton, OR. Spring wheat was planted in 1974 because of winter kill. No data are available from 1979 due to probe failure in early summer.{dagger}

 


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Fig. 4 Winter wheat grain yield as a function of water use efficiency (WUEET) from 1968 to 1989 at the Columbia Basin Agricultural Experiment Station near Pendleton, OR. Points represent data from individual plots. Regression equation is: Yield = 561 x WUEET - 248 (r2 = 0.71). Square symbols are from 1974 when spring wheat was grown because winter wheat was killed by frost

 
Pea
Pea ET differed due to tillage during 7 (1968, 1969, 1971, 1977, 1982, 1983, and 1988) of the 20 yr of experimentation (Table 4). In each of those years, conservation tillage systems (Spring MBD-MBD or Fall SWP-SKW) had lower ETs than conventional tillage systems (Fall R-CH or Fall MBD-MBD). However, lower pea ET was associated with greater yield in 4 of those 7 yr (1968, 1969, 1971, and 1977). Lower pea ET was associated with lower yield in 1982, and there were no yield differences among treatments in 1983 and 1988. When the data from all of the years were combined, mean ET was slightly less for conservation tillage systems, but differences were not statistically different.


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Table 4 The effects of four tillage systems on fresh pea water use (ET) and water use efficiency (WUEET) from 1968 to 1988 at the Pendleton Experiment Station, east Oregon. Pea was killed by frost in 1987.{dagger}

 
Pea WUEET differed due to tillage in 9 (1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1973, 1977, 1979, 1981, and 1988) of the 20 yr of experimentation (Table 4). For six of these years, pea WUEET was greater for conservation tillage systems. Treatment effects on pea WUEET were associated with treatment effects on yield during 4 of the 9 yr (1970, 1973, 1981, and 1986). For the other 5 yr, there were tillage effects on both yield and ET. There were no years in which treatment effects on pea WUEET were only associated with effects on ET, suggesting that tillage effects on WUEET were more a result of effects on yield than on ET. There was no effect of tillage on pea WUEET when data from all years were combined.

Yield Models
Winter Wheat
Using Leggett's (1959) model for winter wheat, we obtained

(5)
with , where yield is in kilograms per hectare, and soil water storage in March and rain are in millimeters. This compares well to Leggett's original equation for winter wheat:

(6)
which was developed for older varieties. Although the model described by Eq. [5] was highly significant (P < 0.001), there was a great deal of data scatter around the model curve (Fig. 5a) . By regressing yield on wheat ET, we obtained (Fig. 5b)

(7)
with . Presumably the most important reason for this model's improvement over the Leggett model is that the latter does not take into account the fall, winter, and early spring ET.



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Fig. 5 Wheat yield as a function of the sum of soil water storage in March plus spring rain, crop water use (ET), and ET divided by mean seasonal daily vapor pressure deficit (). Data were taken from 1968 to 1988 at the Columbia Basin Agricultural Experiment Station near Pendleton, OR. Points represent data from individual plots. Outside lines represent 95% confidence intervals to the regression line. The dashed line represents Leggett's (1959) original formula. Square symbols are from 1974 when spring wheat was grown because winter wheat was killed by frost

 
Dividing wheat ET by further improved the model (Fig. 5c). For this data set, we obtained

(8)
with . This improvement illustrates the considerable influence of on crop WUE, as predicted by theory (Tanner and Sinclair, 1983). The advantage of correcting for is clearly shown for the 1974 spring wheat data, which fell below the regression line (Fig. 5b) because of a greater during its growing season (Fig. 1). The major management factor that would influence in the inland Pacific Northwest is the planting date.

Although use of the ET and ET/ offered considerable improvement over the Leggett model for wheat yield, there was still substantial scatter around the model curve. One likely source of this is winter runoff that occurs when rain falls on frozen or saturated ground (Zuzel, 1994). Runoff was not measured in this experiment and is ignored in Eq. [1]. Another contributing factor may have been the increased rates of N used during the later years of the experiment.

Using the multiple-regression approach of Ramig and Pumphrey (1977) for winter wheat, we obtained the equation

(9)
with . By comparison, Ramig and Pumphrey (1977) found that, on average, one gains 3.8, 14.8, and 30.7 kg ha-1 wheat for each millimeter of winter, May, and June precipitation while losing 0.1 kg ha-1 wheat for each millimeter of April precipitation. They obtained an R2 of 0.64, which is similar to our results. Overall, Eq. [9] gave a slightly better fit to the wheat yield data than the ET-based equations. However, a comparison of our results with those of Ramig and Pumphrey (1977) suggests that the coefficients were specific to the data set. For example, multiple regression using their data suggests a yield loss associated with increased April precipitation, whereas with our data set, it suggests a positive effect. Their results also suggest a greater positive effect associated with May rain than does our data set.

The residual errors of two multiple-regression models (ours and the original one of Ramig and Pumphrey, 1977) for the wheat yield data of this study are shown in Fig. 6 , along with the residual errors for the wheat ET/ model. The multiple-regression models tended to overestimate values in certain regions of the abscissa while underestimating it in others. Overall, the original model of Ramig and Pumphrey (1977) tended to underestimate the yield, especially at values near 5000 kg ha-1, and overestimate it at values near 3500 kg ha-1 (Fig. 6b). Because the ET/ model is more physically based than the regression models, it should be more robust and better suited for independent data sets. Nonetheless, the favorable results that were obtained for the regression models, in view of their simple and easily obtained inputs, render them an attractive alternative for some site-specific applications.



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Fig. 6 Residual errors for three models used to estimate winter wheat yield from 1968 to 1988 at the Pendleton experiment station, east Oregon. (A) Results of rerunning the multiple-regression model of Ramig and Pumphrey (1977) (Eq. [9]) for this data set using winter (Oct.–Mar.), April, March, and June rain amounts; (B) Ramig and Pumphrey's (1977) original equation; and (C) the crop water use (ET) divided by mean seasonal daily vapor pressure deficit () model of Fig. 4. Points represent data from individual plots

 
Pea
The results of the multiple-regression model for pea were

(10)
with . This compares reasonably well with Pumphrey's original results

(11)
with . The two data sets gave similar R2 values, but the values of the coefficients are different, which is similar to the multiple-regression results for wheat. In particular, their coefficients for April precipitation and HDDS were negative, whereas ours were positive, and their coefficient for May precipitation was much lower than ours.

Using linear regression for pea yield and ET, we obtained

(12)
with . When using ET/ instead of ET, the results were

(13)
with . The residual errors of these three models confirm that the Pumphrey model predicted pea yield much better than the models based on ET and ET/ (Fig. 7) , despite the change in the model coefficients. Dividing ET by actually reduced model goodness of fit, perhaps because temperature and humidity directly affected pea yield in ways that does not take into account. Possibilities for this include humidity effects on disease incidence, temperature effects on flower and pod abortion, or temperature and humidity effects on the relation between yield and tenderness. For all three models, the 1972 data deviated considerably from predicted values for unexplained reasons.



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Fig. 7 Residual errors for three models used to estimate fresh pea yields from 1968 to 1988 at the Columbia Basin Agricultural Experiment Station near Pendleton, OR. (A) Results for the multiple-regression model of Pumphrey et al. (1979) (Eq. [3]) for this independent data set, (B) regressing yield on crop water use (ET) (Eq. [12]), and (C) regressing yield on ET divided by the mean seasonal daily vapor pressure deficit () (Eq. [13]). Circled data are from 1972. Points represent data from individual plots

 
Fresh green pea yields in this region are known for being highly unstable (Allmaras et al., 1987) due to abiotic stresses such as heat, cold, and drought and to biotic stresses, including Fusarium solani and Pythium spp. Based on the superior predictive ability of the Pumphrey model, we speculate that the poorer performance of the ET and ET/ models is due to a combination of disease and sensitivity of pea to high temperatures per se. Indeed, this analysis suggests that water supply tends to not be the limiting factor to fresh pea production in this environment.


    Discussion
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 Materials and methods
 NOTES
 Results
 Discussion
 REFERENCES
 
Overall, there were no differences in yield among the four tillage systems for fresh pea or wheat, and there were no consistent differences for wheat ET and WUEET. For 6 of the 20 yr, pea ET of the Fall SWP-SKW treatment was less than that of the Fall MBD-MBD treatment, suggesting some water conservation due to the presence of greater surface residue. In terms of soil conservation, the Spring MBD-MBD and Fall SWP-SKW treatments are probably better systems because greater surface cover is maintained during the winter following wheat harvest. The Fall SWP-SKW treatment has the additional advantage of greater residue cover during the winter following fall wheat planting.

Whether there are economic advantages to these systems is less clear, especially for the Spring MBD-MBD treatment. Given the relatively narrow window for optimum soil conditions in the spring, it would be difficult for producers with thousands of hectares to effect spring tillage operations and still plant pea in a timely manner. The fact that there has been a decline in recent years in wheat yield in the small experimental plots of the Fall SWP-SKW treatment (Payne et al., 2000), apparently due to downy brome infestation, raises the question of how easily downy brome and other weeds can be controlled in conservation systems on a farm scale. Despite markedly beneficial effects on soil physical properties, conservation tillage systems that fail to control downy brome and other pests will probably not be economically viable (Young et al., 1994; Kraft et al., 1991).

For wheat, our study suggests that using ET as a predictor for yield offers substantial improvement to the formula of Leggett (1959). An advantage of the Leggett (1959) formula is its limited data requirement. However, there are now several models available (e.g., Rickman et al., 1996) that predict wheat ET reasonably well from simple soil and weather inputs. These can be used to improve the prediction of yield potential, and therefore the estimation of N requirement, over the Leggett model. Generally, farmers cannot add fertilizer later than early March because moisture will be insufficient for the crop to take advantage of it. Therefore, both the Leggett and ET-based models require a prediction of growing-season precipitation from meteorological forecasts or historical records.

This study reaffirms the importance of in determining yield–ET relations. For this Mediterranean-type environment, winter crops will generally be at an advantage for WUEET compared with spring crops because a greater portion of the growth cycle occurs during periods of lower . Use of ET/ will probably be more reliable for use and comparison with independent data sets on yield and water use than ET alone.

The regression formula developed by Pumphrey et al. (1979) proved to be a much better predictor of pea yield that the ET-based equations. This suggests that pea yield, which is notoriously unstable in this region, is limited by other constraints such as disease and temperature extremes. However, the formula presented by Pumphrey et al. (1975) for standardizing fresh pea yields to 100% tenderometer readings appeared to be year-specific and unsuitable for general application.


    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
 
We thank Karl Rhinhart, Roger Goller, and the late Les Ekin for invaluable assistance with field work and data processing.


    NOTES
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 Materials and methods
 NOTES
 Results
 Discussion
 REFERENCES
 
1 Mention of tradenames does not constitute an endorsement. Back

Received for publication December 8, 1999.
    REFERENCES
 TOP
 ABSTRACT
 INTRODUCTION
 Materials and methods
 NOTES
 Results
 Discussion
 REFERENCES
 




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