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a Dep. of Agronomy and Soils, Auburn University, 202 Funchess Hall, Auburn, AL 36849-5412 USA
evsanten{at}acesag.auburn.edu
| ABSTRACT |
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Abbreviations: DM, dry matter yield SARE, Sustainable Agriculture Research and Extension Program
| INTRODUCTION |
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Geostatistics, a statistical method first developed by geologists (Matheron, 1963), can be used to describe phenomena showing variations that are not randomly distributed in space. Geostatistical analysis uses the geographic location of individual observations to quantify spatial correlation among treated plots from field experiments (Ball et al., 1993; Brownie et al., 1993; Stroup et al., 1994), to characterize the geographic variability of soils (Ovalles and Collins, 1988), and to improve sampling design by utilizing the spatial dependence of soil properties within sampling regions (Di et al., 1989). Recently, geostatistics has been used to identify spatial genetic structure in wild populations of perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) (Monestiez et al., 1994) and to establish a core collection of natural populations (Charmet and Balfourier, 1995; Charmet et al., 1994).
Many important cool-season forage cultivars, among them Ky 31 tall fescue, are the result of ecotype selection or selection from existing cultivars (Casler et al., 1996). Often existing pastures or hayfields serve as the source populations for cultivar development. The purpose of sampling these pastures is to select genotypes from a source population covering as much of the genetic variation as possible. Generally, the larger the sample size, the better the sample represents the source population. Large samples will capture more genetic variation, but they are more costly. It is important to achieve good genetic representation at a reasonable cost. From a practical standpoint, it is important to study the pasture sampling of genetic variability as affected by sample size.
The bootstrap method of statistical inference is a computer-based method for assigning measures of precision to statistical estimates, as first introduced in 1979 by Efron to estimate standard errors (Efron and Tibshirani, 1993). The nonparametric bootstrap can be used to estimate the sampling distribution of an estimator with an unknown probability density from the data in a single sample. Xie and Mosjidis (1996) used the bootstrap method to evaluate the performance of yield stability parameters. Bootstrap estimates and their standard errors of the parameters could be useful indicators of the relative performance of the parameters of concern. It is logical and practical to use bootstrap techniques to determine the effects of sample size on the amount of genetic variability of agronomic traits such as maturity, DM yield, and plant diameter in a sample of plants.
The objectives of this study were to (i) determine the effect of longer-term grazing and different management practices on pastures with regard to the changes in maturity, DM yield per plant, and individual plant diameter; (ii) determine the genetic variation of these agronomic traits as it relates to the distance between plants within a paddock; and (iii) use the bootstrap technique to determine the effects of sample size on the amount of genetic variability of these agronomic traits.
| Materials and methods |
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Pasture Sampling
Three considerations guided our sampling: (i) sampling points should be close enough to detect intrapaddock variation, (ii) sampling points should be far enough apart to limit the total number of plants in the evaluation trial to a manageable number (less than about 5000), and (iii), in the evaluation trial, the average distance between plants from a given paddock should be substantially less than the sampling distance within a paddock, so that the spatial relationships among plants in the original trial will not be obscured by spatial variation within plots in the evaluation trial.
Plants were collected at 6-m intervals in both X and Y directions of each paddock (average size 1.4 ha). Pieces comprising four to six tillers were removed from the nearest growing tall fescue plant (= genotype) and placed into linen soil sample bags. Each sample's position in the field was identified by XY coordinates. Depending on the size of the paddock, between 350 and 400 samples taken. Tillers were transplanted into Cone-tainers and grown during summer 1995. Individual genotypes were subcloned three times before transplanting. Seed was also germinated from the original seed lot that was used to establish the pasture trial. The resultant genotypes were established 6 mo prior to sampling paddocks, to achieve equal size with plants originating from pastures. These original seed lot genotypes were subcloned later along with the pasture samples.
Evaluation Trial
The ex situ evaluation experiment was conducted at the Plant Breeding Unit, Tallassee, AL (32°42' N, 85°53' W), beginning in autumn 1995, when genotypes were transplanted to the field as spaced plants (30 by 30 cm). The soil type was a Hiwassee sandy loam (clayey, kaolinitic, thermic Typic Rhodudults). Each treatment (plot) consisted of 400 (20 x 20) genotypes from a single paddock, assigned at random to position within a plot, with a 30-cm spacing between plants; extra plants of Ky 31 were used to provide even competitive conditions for all genotypes and to balance all plots in the evaluation trial to 400 plants. Plots containing plants from the original seed lot were somewhat smaller (160 plants at a 30-cm spacing) as germination of the stored seed was only 50%. There were seven treatments in all, six representing the six paddocks plus another one containing plants grown from the original seed lot. The seven treatments were evaluated in a randomized complete block design with three replicates.
Nitrogen fertilizer was applied at rates of 22.4 kg N ha-1 before transplanting, and 33.6 kg N ha-1 each in February and October. Herbicides were applied several times before and after transplanting to prevent weed competition, especially bermudagrass [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers.].
Individual genotypes were first harvested in late April 1996, and again in mid-April 1997, by removing all aboveground biomass at a height of 5 cm. All residual growth was removed to a height of 10 cm in late November of each year. Maturity on the Simon and Park (1983) scale, DM yield per plant, and plant diameter were determined on an individual genotype basis. Plant diameter was determined after harvest by placing a plexiglass disk which had concentric circles in 1-cm increments marked on it onto the harvested plant. The target growth stage was an average of 54 on the Simon and Park scale for the trial, equivalent to plants having tillers 50% emerged from the boot. On average, we harvested the plants slightly earlier than planned (Table 1) .
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Suppose the distance between two samples (genotypes) within a given paddock is h. The semivariance
(h) can be used to describe the spatial relationship between these two samples. The semivariance describes the degree of dependence existing between samples as a function of the distance between them. The semivariance
(h) can be calculated as
![]() | (1) |
(h) is the experimental mean semivariance. Semivariograms are often presented in graph form, with the horizontal x-axis being increasing increments of h (the lag distance) and the vertical y-axis the semivariance at each lag distance. Positive definite models are fit to these experimental curves by a variety of mathematical procedures, providing coefficients that describe the spatial relationships within the data set. The most common model fit to geostatistical data is the spherical model, given mathematically as
![]() | (2) |
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The range is the distance at which samples become independent of one another. When samples are closer together than the range, some type of spatial relationship exists between those samples and they are not independent of each other. Samples farther apart than the range are independent, and the assumption of randomness when selecting plants would apply. The nugget variance or nugget effect is the semivariance when distance between samples equals zero (i.e.,
). This represents the unexplained variance, often caused by measurement error or by variability of properties which could not be detected at the shortest sampling distance employed (Ovalles and Collins, 1988).
The Geostatistical Analysis Program (MGAP; RockWare, 1993) was used for initial data analysis and graphing, followed by the PROC MIXED procedure of SAS (Littell et al., 1996) to fit models and test significance of spatial variability.
Statistical significance of the spatial covariance parameters was tested with a likelihood ratio statistic (based on restricted maximum likelihood). The nugget effect can be tested similarly, using the restricted maximum likelihood log-likelihoods for nugget and no-nugget models (Littell et al., 1996; Self and Liang, 1987).
Seven data sets consisting of individual genotypes within the six paddocks and the original population with least squares estimates of maturity scores, DM yield per plant, and individual plant diameter were obtained from the analysis of the evaluation trial for further analysis.
The bootstrap method (Efron and Tibshirani, 1993) was used to analyze these seven data sets per dependent variable. The procedure is described thus:
Based on this theory, a SAS program was developed to obtain bootstrap estimates of the expected value of the mean, maximum, and minimum and also of the corresponding standard deviations at various sample sizes for three agronomic traits. The SAS RANUNI function (SAS, 1989) was used to conduct bootstrap resampling with replacement, and a SAS macro was used to generate bootstrap replicates. The standard deviation among bootstrap replicates is a bootstrap estimate of the standard error. We used 500 replicates at each sample size (ranging from 2 to 400) for all seven data sets.
To characterize the sample size effects on bootstrap estimates of maximum, minimum, and standard error of mean maturity, DM yield, and individual plant diameter, estimates were plotted against sample size as the independent variable.
| Results and discussion |
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0.05) earlier maturity, higher DM yield, and larger plant diameter compared with originals of the same genetic background. We confirmed those results in the present study with plant material from pastures in Virginia that had been grazed for six years. The presence of genetic variation in pastures is a prerequisite for adaptation and evolutionary change. Genetic variability enables pastures to undergo population changes to better adapt to new environments, such as animal grazing. The shift towards earlier maturity in derived populations compared with originals may have evolutionary advantages. Kemp (1988) argued that earlier-maturing genotypes in a whole range of cool-season species have better establishment, leading to better survival in the first winter. It may also be argued that plants with inherently earlier maturity could shorten the time of the life cycle required to regenerate progeny that are better adapted to the new environment. Small differences in relative maturity indicate that accumulation of change happens over time. No significant differences were observed among different pasture management treatments (Table 1). Plant populations are dynamic entities, and their genetic structure responds to various types of disturbance. Vaylay and van Santen (1999) observed significant genetic diversity among tall fescue populations derived from original seed lot, ungrazed survivors, and survivors of the same genetic background after two years of grazing for two experimental populations, but not in the old cultivar Ky 31. Because Ky 31 is an old cultivar, only two years of exposure to grazing is unlikely to cause drastic genetic shifts; however, considerable genetic diversity among Ky 31 ecotypes collected in Alabama from pastures with ages ranging from 18 to 38 years was reported by van Santen and Collins (1991). These differences among populations were largely attributed to climatic variables such as long-term normal precipitation and temperature. The material used in the present study was Ky 31, which, although subjected to six years of different pasture management treatments, showed no significance among different management treatments. It appears, Vaylay and van Santen (1999) concluded, that the mere process of establishing a cultivar through seeding changes that cultivar.
Spatial Variation
Lag distances of the constructed semivariograms covered 50% of the shorter dimensions of each paddock (4045 m). All semivariograms were omnidirectional; no detectable anisotropy was present (data not shown). A semivariance estimate for a given lag-distance was estimated from at least 500 pairs and some estimates were based on as many as 2000 pairs (Table 2)
. The spatial variation in every one of the 18 paddocktrait combinations was pure nugget effect; the estimate at a lag distance equal to the sampling distance was 95% of the population variance estimate for a given trait (Table 2). Even though some spatial statistical analyses (e.g., maturity in the fescue + alfalfa paddock of Block II) indicated significant spatial variation, the estimated range of 7.5 m was close to the actual minimum distance sampled and the graphical presentation (Fig. 1)
suggested pure nugget effects. Both pasture blocks responded identically, even though the cropping history before stand establishment was different. Block I had been in crop land, whereas the other block had been in unimproved pasture (V. Allen, 1998, personal communication).
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7.5 m) spatial structures may exist within pastures, but could not be detected in our study. Two possible reasons may be cited: (i) our methods were not sensitive enough to detect variation because we were dealing with phenotypic differences, or (ii) genetic variation on such a small scale is truly random. If our methods were too crude, molecular markers may offer a big improvement and may allow us to detect spatial variation. It seems clear, however, that for all practical purposes in applied forage breeding we can operate on the assumption that variation within a paddock, at least for sampling on a 6-m grid, is random with respect to the distance between two samples.
Bootstrap Sampling
The questions remains, however, how many plants should be sampled per pasture. Given a fairly high broad-sense heritability (repeatability), quantitative traits can be used to address this question. Maturity in Ky 31derived populations generally fits these constraints. Eight out of 10 Ky 31derived populations in a study by van Santen and Collins (1991) had broad-sense heritabilities greater than or equal to 0.74.
To avoid bias in favor of high seed yield, sampling of vegetative material is generally preferred over collection of seed (Tyler et al., 1987). The authors furthermore state that "vegetative sampling provides a sample of what is actually growing in a given environment and thus is more likely to reflect the adaptation." They argue that a minimum of 25 to 30 plants should be collected from each population. Similarly, Burton and Davies (1984) suggest taking 30 "vegetative units" from each grazed pasture.
Bootstrap sampling from the population of 160 individuals from the original population or 350 to 400 individuals from each paddock of the grazing trial indicated that 25 to 30 samples indeed captured most of the phenotypic variation for maturity (Fig. 2) . The response to sampling of individuals from paddocks in Block II was very similar (data not shown). Early-maturing entries (high score) were obtained at rather small sample sizes. This is probably the result of our approach to harvesting the trial, in that we were aiming to harvest at an average maturity score of 54. It was difficult to select the latest-maturing (low score) individuals without going to larger sample sizes (Table 3) . This may not be all that important in practical breeding, because of the relative ease of shifting maturity in populations of cross-pollinated forage grasses. For purposes of germplasm conservation, however, it may be a different matter.
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| Conclusions |
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| NOTES |
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Received for publication March 25, 1998.
| REFERENCES |
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