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Forage Pasture Production, Risk Analysis, and the Buffering Capacity of Triticale

^a USDA-ARS, Appalachian Farming Systems Research Center, 1224 Airport Rd., Beaver, WV 25813
^b Dep. of Crop and Soil Environmental Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State Univ., 245 Smyth Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061
^c West Virginia Univ., 1078 Agricultural Science Building, P.O. Box 6108, Morgantown, WV 26506-6108

View larger version (46K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Fig. 1. Monthly temperature and precipitation record from January 1999 through May 2004 as recorded at an automated weather station adjacent to the plot areas. The sinusoidal pattern at the bottom of the figures depict the long-term (8-yr) mean monthly temperatures and total liquid precipitation at the field site. Monthly departures from the long-term values are depicted at the top of each figure. Since precipitation gauge was not heated, the values depicted during periods of freezing weather may be less than actual precipitation.

View larger version (27K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Fig. 2. Least square means of cumulative yield averaged over 5 yr. Although standard errors of difference were calculated for each possible pair comparison within a harvest month, only the largest errors calculated for each month are presented in the bars for clarity of presentation. Degrees of freedom (df) are provided for each harvest month.

View larger version (23K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Fig. 3. (A) Probability density plot depicting the normal distribution for August harvests of May-planted triticale, June-planted triticale, and mixed-pasture swards. (B) Cumulative descending probability plot for the same swards shown above. Curves define the probability of equaling or exceeding a given yield.

View larger version (35K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Fig. 4. Isograms of cumulative yield probabilities for mixed pasture and monthly-planted triticale. Isolines connect yields of equal cumulative probability among harvest months.

View larger version (25K): [in this window] [in a new window]   Fig. 5. Mean differences between triticale and mixed-pasture yields from Monte Carlo simulations. Bars are plus and minus the standard deviation. Positive values occur when triticale yields exceed the mixed pasture.