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Modeling

Modeling the Effects of Water Temperature on Rice Growth and Yield under a Cool Climate

II. Model Application

^a Faculty of Agriculture, Iwate University, 3-18-8 Ueda, Iwate, 020-8550, Japan
^b Department of Global Resources, National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, 3-1-1 Kannondai, Tsukuba, 305-8604, Japan
^c Graduate School of Agriculture, Hokkaido University, N9, W9, Kita-ku, Sapporo, 060-8589, Japan

^* Corresponding author (shimn{at}iwate-u.ac.jp)

Impact of water temperature (T_w) on rice growth and yield in Hokkaido, Japan, one of the coolest rice producing areas in the world, were quantitatively evaluated using the newly developed growth model that can simulate the effects of T_w independently from the effects of air temperature (T_a). Using this model, first we evaluated the benefits of having T_w warmer than T_a for rice yield. Without this difference, simulated rice yield was reduced by almost half. Second, the model also highlighted the causes of differences among sites in rice productivity; higher productivity was attributed to higher solar radiation (RD), higher wind speed (WS), and higher T_w. Finally, under a scenario of future global warming, the model estimated that a 3°C T_a increase above the current level increased T_w by 1°C and increased yield by 6%. However, adding the effects of changes in other factors (RD and WS) increased T_w by 0 to 2°C and changed yield by –30% to +41%. Our results demonstrate that T_w must be considered to understand growth and yield responses of rice to climate change, especially in cool regions.

Abbreviations: AH, atmospheric humidity • LAI, leaf area index • RD, solar radiation • RMSE, root mean square deviation • T_a, air temperature • T_w, water temperature

Received for publication April 24, 2007.