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Developing Guidelines for Replanting Grain Sorghum: I. Validation and Sensitivity Analysis of the SORKAM Sorghum Growth Model

Crop Sci. Dep., North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC 27695-7620

Richard L. Vanderlip and Stephen M. Welch

Dep. of Agronomy, Kansas State Univ., Manhattan, KS, 66506-5501

^* Corresponding author (rheinig{at}plymouth.ces.ncsu.edu).

Sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] producers often have difficulty determining when plant stands are low enough to merit replanting. Our objective was to use SORKAM, a sorghum growth model, to develop guidelines for replanting grain sorghum. A necessary first step is validation of the model over an extensive range of management and environmental factors. Validation was accomplished using 19 field data sets representing 11 yr and six Kansas locations. Several nonparametric tests were used to compare observed and simulated yields, yield components, and phenological dates. In addition, sensitivities of yield and yield components were determined in response to yearly climate, planting date, plant population, and maturity class changes. Model sensitivities were compared with sensitivities calculated from field data. While phenological predictions were adequate, SORKAM could capture only 27 to 79% of grain yield variability at the locations tested. Yield predictions from different plant populations within a planting date were particularly inaccurate. The validation and sensitivity analyses showed that the poor yield predictions were the result of improper computation of tiller number and faulty partitioning of biomass to caryopsis weight. Partitioning errors translocated enough assimilate from culm to grain to make yields essentially constant across populations within a planting date. To use SORKAM to generate replant guidelines, improvements must be made in modeling the relationships among yield components and the source-sink relationship that determines caryopsis weight.

Received for publication September 22, 1994.

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